DraftKings and Flutter lose millions due to lucky players: March Madness played against bookmakers

The American betting market, which has been growing in recent years, suddenly failed. The biggest players — DraftKings and Flutter (owner of FanDuel) — sharply revised their financial expectations for the year, citing an "abnormally good" period for players. And it's not about violations or some kind of fraud - on the contrary, it was the predictability of sports results that became the problem.

According to the head of Flutter, Peter Jackson, the NCAA March Madness tournament dealt a real blow to the bookmakers' margin. This year, all the favourites won in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds - this happened only once in the history of the tournament. For bettors, this was a golden moment: bets made on obvious winners played en masse, leaving bookmakers in the red.

Against this background, DraftKings revised its full-year revenue forecast downward by $200 million, now expecting $6.4 billion. Flutter, on the other hand, lowered expectations by $180 million, now forecasting $1.13 billion.

This was an alarming signal on the other hand: for the first time in a long time, the market was shown that explosive growth is not infinite. Regulations are tightening, competition is growing, and players are becoming smarter and more careful. All this together forces operators to reduce appetites and adjust strategies.