The U.S. Will Remain a Small Part of 2026 World Cup Betting Despite Hosting the Tournament
Investment bank Macquarie has released its forecast for betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Analysts estimate total wagering through legal sportsbooks could reach around $50B.
At first glance, the number looks massive, but there is an uncomfortable detail for the U.S. in this forecast. Even though part of the tournament will be played on American soil, the U.S. market may account for only about 5% of global betting volume.
Macquarie believes the rapid growth of legal sports betting in the U.S. has not yet changed the global picture. The American market has become larger, louder, and more visible, but soccer remains a sport where the main betting activity is concentrated outside the U.S.
A separate factor is the World Cup's new format. The tournament has expanded from 64 to 104 matches, and that does not necessarily mean a proportional increase in betting on each game. According to Macquarie's logic, players' money and attention will be spread across more matches, so the average betting volume per match could be lower.
At the same time, the bank's forecast does not cover the entire grey and offshore segment. The calculations include only the legal sportsbook market. Bets placed with offshore operators are not included in the estimate.
H2 Gambling Capital previously estimated betting through licensed sportsbooks on the 2026 World Cup higher, at roughly $60B. That means the current forecast range from major analysts now sits between $50B and $60B.
The main takeaway here is not that the World Cup will fall short of expectations. Quite the opposite: even the lower estimate is enormous. But for the U.S., the tournament does not look like the moment when the country suddenly captures a major share of the soccer betting market. Hosting helps with attention, but the global habit of betting on soccer was formed in very different regions.
Michael Turner is a sports presenter at CasinosInCanada who covers major sporting events and sports-related insights for readers.
