Kalshi and Polymarket Have Drawn More Than $5 Billion in Bets on the 2026 World Cup Winner
Prediction markets around the 2026 World Cup continue to gain momentum along with the playoffs. The combined betting volume on the tournament winner across Kalshi and Polymarket has already exceeded $5 billion.
Most of the activity is on Polymarket: total betting volume on the “2026 World Cup winner” outcome there is estimated at more than $4 billion. Kalshi has crossed the $1 billion mark in the same market. For prediction markets, this is no longer just sports hype. It is one of the most visible mass-market cases where a football tournament turns into a full-scale financial news story.
France currently looks like the clear favourite among users on both platforms. Spain and Argentina follow behind — teams that are also holding steady near the top of traders’ expectations.
That ranking fits the current tournament context well. France reached the quarter-finals after beating Paraguay, Spain knocked out Portugal, and Argentina got past Egypt. The closer the tournament gets to its final stages, the more strongly the market reacts not only to squad strength, but also to the bracket, injuries, the form of key players, and how individual matchups are perceived.
At the same time, the volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket do not represent classic bookmaker bets, but trading in contracts tied to an event outcome. Users buy and sell positions, while the price effectively reflects the crowd’s assessment of probability. That is why France’s lead shows not only belief in the team, but also where liquidity is flowing right now.
The 2026 World Cup is becoming a rare moment for prediction markets when the product moves far beyond crypto and fintech audiences. Football is easy for everyone to understand, the tournament unfolds in real time, and every match immediately shifts expectations. That explains the volumes: major platforms have found an event that users do not need to have explained to them for long.
Michael Turner is a sports presenter at CasinosInCanada who covers major sporting events and sports-related insights for readers.
