Almost a victory: why do optimists continue to take risks, and pessimists do not?

The phenomenon of "almost winning" in gambling is familiar to many: it is a situation where there is just a little bit to win, and the result is perceived not as a pure loss, but as something close to success. It has long been known that such moments have a powerful motivating effect, forcing players to continue, make bigger bets and want revenge more the same reward centers as with real winnings. Thus, "almost winning" is an ambiguous signal that can be interpreted both as a loss and as a harbinger of imminent success.

However, until recently, there was little information about which personality traits make a person more vulnerable to this effect. Optimism and pessimism, as enduring character traits, have a direct impact on how we interpret ambiguous situations. Optimists tend to see positive signs in everything and expect a good outcome, while pessimists prepare for the worst. This tendency of optimists to interpret positively often leads to an underestimation of risks and a greater willingness to take risks. It would be logical to assume that they will perceive a series of "almost victories" not as a series of losses, but as a sign that the real win is near.

Details of a scientific experiment

To test this hypothesis, scientists conducted a study that involved 27 optimists and 25 pessimists. Participants were asked to play a simulator of a slot machine, while their brain activity was monitored using the method of evoked potentials (ERP), which allows you to see the brain's reaction to various events in real time. Particular attention was paid to two components of ERP: FRN, which is related to the reaction to a negative result (loss), and P300, which reflects the assessment of the significance of the event.

The researchers expected that optimists' brains would respond more positively to "near wins" than pessimists, which would translate into ERP scores. It was also assumed that after such situations, optimists would behave more riskily, for example, by raising rates.

Unexpected Outcomes: The Brain and Behaviour

The results were extremely interesting. Contrary to expectations, the indicators of brain activity (ERP amplitudes) in response to "near gain" in both groups did not differ much. The brains of optimists and pessimists at the neural level processed this situation in a similar way.

However, the behavioural patterns were radically different. Faced with a "near win," optimists showed a clear appetite for risk and were more likely to bet higher in the next round. Pessimists, on the other hand, behaved more cautiously, perceiving such an outcome as a signal to reduce risks.

Moreover, an interesting pattern was found in the group of pessimists: the weaker their brains (according to the P300 indicator) distinguished between "almost winning" and completely losing, the less likely they were to take risks. Optimists did not find such a relationship.

In summary, the study found that while people's basic neural response to a hurtful loss may be the same, it is personality patterns — optimism or pessimism — that determine subsequent decisions and behaviours. These findings open up new perspectives for studying risk factors for developing gambling addiction and help to understand why some people are more vulnerable to the temptation of gambling than others.