Guardian opinion column accuses Trump administration of profiting from prediction-market activity

Editorial note: The article below summarises an opinion column published by The Guardian (columnist Nesrine Malik). The interpretations are those of the columnist and do not reflect adjudicated findings. The Trump Organization and Polymarket have not been charged with any wrongdoing in connection with the matters discussed.

The influential publication The Guardian raised a wave of discussions around the activities of the Donald Trump administration. In his latest column, columnist Nesrin Malik asks the question: are the phenomenally accurate bets in the prediction markets the result of the genius intuition of traders, or are we witnessing a systemic leak of insider information from the Oval Office?

Political Las Vegas

According to Malik, Trump has successfully transformed American politics into a kind of branch of Las Vegas. The president is not just involved in this ecosystem, he has actually created a culture where government decisions become a bargaining chip. Trump and his inner circle do not hide their sympathy for blockchain technologies, actively promoting personal cryptocurrency startups.

The scale of financial success is staggering: According to The New York Times, Trump has increased his fortune by at least $1.5 billion in the first year of his second term alone.

Elusive transactions

The main problem for regulators lies in the very essence of prediction markets. Decentralization and the use of digital assets create an ideal "gray area". It is almost impossible to track who exactly is behind the multimillion-dollar bets made five minutes before the official decree.

This opens up unprecedented opportunities for the president's "inner circle". In the absence of transparency, government secrets become a liquid commodity that can be monetised in real time without fear of prosecution by the SEC or other regulatory agencies.

Family Contract at Polymarket

The connection between the political elite and betting platforms is becoming closer. In 2025, it became known that The Trump Organisation officially invested in Polymarket. Moreover, Donald Trump Jr. took a post on the platform's advisory board, which finally secured the family's status as key players in this segment.

As Nesrine Malik concludes the column, the absence of direct evidence of presidential involvement does not, in her view, dispel the broader concern that opaque crypto-derivative markets are vulnerable to abuse by political actors with privileged information.