Forecast trap: Only 2% of Polymarket participants are in the real black

A fresh analytical report covering the base of 2.5 million users of the decentralized platform Polymarket showed disappointing results for most fans of easy money. According to the data, the overwhelming number of participants — 84.1% — recorded net losses. Only 15.9% of traders were able to close their positions with any profit.

However, even within the "lucky" minority, the numbers look even harsher. Only 2% of the total number of users received truly significant income (more than $1,000 in total ). Those who were able to cross the threshold of profit of $10,000 turned out to be less than 1%.

The hype factor and the "beginner's mistake"

The surge in popularity of Polymarket came during the US presidential race in 2024. A massive influx of inexperienced users who entered the market at the peak of media interest expectedly led to a collapse in average profitability. Most newbies, driven by excitement rather than calculation, quickly drained their deposits.

The study emphasises that stability on this platform is an exceptional phenomenon.

• More than half of the profitable accounts received their main profit within one specific month, after which their success was not repeated.
• Most traders stopped their activity shortly after the first big win or defeat.
• The share of top players who remained active and profitable for a year or more is negligible.

Crowd psychology and expert verdict

The main strategy at Polymarket often comes down to trying to play against the collective opinion. However, as practice shows, the "crowd" at a distance turns out to be more effective than an individual player, which inevitably leads to financial losses for the latter.

These findings correlate with data from Bloomberg, which previously analysed 1.7 million addresses of the platform. The overall result remains unchanged: less than 1% of the most professional and cold-blooded participants accumulate the bulk of the profits of the entire ecosystem, leaving the rest only hope for a random win.