Prediction for the 4th round of the Premier League 2025/2026: Wounded City in the Manchester derby, a test for Tottenham and all the layouts of the round

Chaos in the table and anticipation of big battles. The Premier League is gaining momentum

The English Premier League has never been famous for predictability, but the start of the 2025/2026 season has exceeded even the wildest expectations. Only three rounds are behind, and the standings have already acquired a bizarre look that casts doubt on any pre-season layouts. The usual leaders found themselves in an unusual position, and yesterday's middle peasants and newcomers declare their ambitions. This early chaos sets the perfect backdrop for Matchday 4, which promises to be a moment of truth for many clubs.

The focus is, of course, on two fundamental derbies. Two titans will meet in Manchester, but in very different circumstances, with Manchester City heading into the match with an unprecedented personnel crisis and a humiliating 13th place, while Manchester United see a unique chance to deliver a crushing blow to the wounded beast. A battle of opposites will unfold in London: Tottenham, cruising faster, will go to visit West Ham, whose defence is bursting at the seams.

This article is your complete guide to the fourth round of the Premier League. Here you will find an in-depth analysis of the key confrontations, statistical calculations, an assessment of the current form of the teams and informed forecasts that will help you not only enjoy football, but also understand its hidden currents. To begin with, let's assess the current disposition of forces.

Premier League standings after matchday 3 (2025/2026 season)

Main event of the round: Manchester City vs Manchester United (September 14)

Match intrigue: Derby against all odds. Will the Red Devils be able to finish off the wounded beast?

The Manchester derby is always more than just a match. But the upcoming meeting at the Etihad acquires a very special drama. For the first time in many years, Manchester United approaches the game not as a clear underdog, but as a team that has a tangible advantage due to the opponent's crisis. City, who are in 13th place, and United, who are in 9th place, are far from the top, but the psychology of this match is completely upside down.

Historically, there has always been pressure on United, who were expected to perform a miracle in the confrontation with the well-oiled machine of Pep Guardiola. Now everything has changed. The pressure is on City. It's not just a battle for three points or for city dominance; For the "citizens", this is a match to save the start of the season, to stop the catastrophic fall. For United, this is a unique opportunity not only to win, but to humiliate a weakened enemy on its field and declare a change of power in Manchester.

Form analysis: Alarm bells for City and United instability

The form of the teams before the derby raises a lot of questions on both sides, but City's problems look much more systemic.

Manchester City started the season with a crushing 4-0 away win over Wolverhampton. However, this result turned out to be deceptive, as the Wolves currently close the standings with zero points. As soon as the "citizens" faced more organised opponents, their system failed. A 0-2 home defeat to Tottenham followed, followed by an away failure in the match with Brighton 1-2. which indicates vulnerability against high-quality opponents.  

Manchester United have been inconsistent but have avoided total failure. The season started with a narrow home defeat to title contenders Arsenal (0-1). This was followed by a 1-1 away draw with Fulham and a hard-fought 3-2 home win over Burnley. The Red Devils' results show that they have problems defensively (conceded in two of their three matches) but are also finding ways to score goals. but against the backdrop of the collapse of City, he looks much more acceptable.  

Tactical analysis and personnel collapse of the "Citizens": Where is the weakness of the favourite?

The key factor determining the pre-match alignment is the catastrophic personnel situation at Manchester City. The list of injured players not only weakens the team, it destroys the entire tactical structure of Guardiola. According to reports, five key players will not be able to take part in the derby at once: Rodri, Manuel Akanji, John Stones, Nathan Ake and Erling Haaland.

The consequences of these losses can hardly be overestimated. It's not just the absence of five players in the starting lineup; This is the dismantling of the foundation on which the champions' game was built.

Manchester City's key personnel losses

Without Rodri and Stones, City lose their unique mechanism of control of the centre of the field. Without Haaland, the attack loses its tip. And massive injuries in defence will force Guardiola to field an experimental defensive line that did not have time for teamwork. In fact, United will not be up against champion City, but a weakened version of them, vulnerable both defensively and midfield.

H2H match history and stats: Should we expect goals?

The history of head-to-head meetings of these teams hints that the match is likely to be productive. In 8 of the last 10 head-to-head matches, both teams scored. Recent results also confirm this trend: 6:3, 3:1, 2:1 in favor of different teams. Statistics show that City have won 25 of their 64 matches since 1995, while United have won 29.

Given the current defensive problems of both teams – United's instability and City's completely redrawn defensive line – there is every reason to expect open football with an abundance of scoring chances.

Expert Prediction and Best Bets: Why Do Bookmakers Get It Wrong?

Despite all of the above factors, bookmakers still see Manchester City as the favourite of the meeting, offering odds around 1.67-1.70 for their victory. This looks like a clear reassessment based on the reputation and past merits of the "citizens", and not on the current reality.

The market probably has not yet had time to fully appreciate the scale of the personnel collapse in Guardiola's camp. The absence of five systemically important players equalizes the chances of teams, if not makes United a shadow favourite. This situation creates a unique opportunity for a value bet. City without Rodri, Stones and Haaland is a completely different team, and the odds for them to win should be much higher.

Prediction: Manchester United will not lose.

Recommended bets:

1. The main bet: Manchester United with a handicap (+1.0). This bet provides a solid insurance. Even if City miraculously wins with a minimum score, the bet will be returned. Given the weakened squad of the hosts, United's defeat with a difference of more than one goal looks unlikely.
2. Alternative bet: Both teams to score - Yes. This option is supported by both the history of head-to-head meetings and the current problems of the teams in defence. City's experimental defence is unlikely to be able to keep a clean sheet, but even without Haaland, the attack of the "citizens", even without Haaland, can create problems for United's not the most reliable defence.  

London derby: West Ham v Tottenham (13 September)

Match intrigue: Battle of Opposites at the London Stadium

Another derby of the tour will be held in London, and here the intrigue is based on the diametrically opposite form of the teams. Tottenham have shown confident and tactically mature football under the new manager, which has allowed them to soar to 4th place in the table. West Ham, on the other hand, are in a steep dive, occupying the 16th place and demonstrating a terrifying defensive game. This match will be a test of Spurs' ambitions and a test of survival for the Hammers.

Form analysis: Spurs' flight against the Hammers' dive

West Ham are heading into the derby in a terrible state. The main problem of the team is a disastrous defensive game. In the last two rounds, the Hammers have conceded 8 goals: first there was a crushing home defeat to Chelsea with a score of 1:5, and then a defeat away from Sunderland 0:3.  

Tottenham got off to an impressive start to the season. The team won two confident victories: at home over Burnley (3-0) and, most importantly, away over Manchester City (2-0). The victory at the Etihad, albeit over a weakened champion, is a powerful statement of intent. The only fly in the ointment was an unexpected home defeat to Bournemouth (0-1), which can be attributed to an accident or underestimation of the opponent, but it does not cancel out the overall positive impression of Spurs' performance.  

The statistics of head-to-head matches and key duels

The history of confrontations between these London clubs suggests that matches between them are rarely one-sided. Of the 63 meetings, Tottenham won 29, West Ham won 21, and a draw was recorded 13 more times. This means that, despite the current form, the Hammers have historically been able to give battle to their more famous neighbour. The key duel will be the confrontation between the attacking line of Spurs against the failing central defenders of West Ham.

Prediction and bets: A logical choice in favor of the guests

Bookmakers consider Tottenham to be the favourites and it's hard to argue with that. The odds for the victory of the guests are around 2.10, while the success of West Ham is estimated at 3.35.

Of course, there is always a place for the "despair factor" in a derby, when a team in crisis gives out its best match against the backdrop of prohibitive motivation. West Ham will be playing at home and desperately need a result. However, motivation alone is not able to correct fundamental tactical mistakes in defence. Given how weak the Hammers' defence is and how powerful Tottenham's attack is, a more likely scenario is one in which the class and form of the visitors take over. The odds of 2.10 for Spurs to win in the current conditions are a good value.

Prediction: A confident victory for Tottenham.

Recommended bets:

1. Main bet: Tottenham win (W2). A simple and logical choice based on a huge difference in the current form and quality of the teams' play.  
2. Alternative bet: Total goals over 2.5. West Ham concede a lot, and Tottenham's attack is in excellent condition. The probability that at least three goals will be scored in the match is very high.  

Brief predictions for the rest of the matches of the 4th round: What to pay attention to?

In addition to two high-profile derbies, the fourth round will offer eight more intriguing matches. Below is the full schedule and brief forecasts for each of these meetings.

Full schedule of matches of the 4th round of the Premier League 2025/2026

Saturday, September 13, 2025:

• Arsenal – Nottingham Forest
• Newcastle – Wolverhampton Wanderers
• Crystal Palace – Sunderland
• Bournemouth – Brighton
• Fulham – Leeds United
• Everton – Aston Villa
• West Ham – Tottenham
• Brentford – Chelsea

Sunday, September 14, 2025:

• Burnley – Liverpool
• Manchester City – Manchester United

Arsenal (3) – Nottingham Forest (10)

• Brief analysis: Arsenal, after the victory over United in the first round, will strive to consolidate their success and not let go of the leaders. Nottingham have established themselves as a strong middle peasant, but it will be extremely difficult for them to compete with the Gunners at the Emirates.
• Prediction: A confident victory for Arsenal with a handicap (-1.5).

Newcastle (17) – Wolverhampton (20)

• Brief analysis: Battle of outsiders. Newcastle failed the start of the season, but a home match against the main outsider of the league is an ideal opportunity to break an unsuccessful streak. Wolverhampton look absolutely helpless.
• Prediction: Newcastle win.

Crystal Palace (8) – Sunderland (6)

• Brief analysis: A meeting of two teams that pleasantly surprised at the start. Sunderland are sensationally in 6th place, but Crystal Palace are very strong at home. An equal and stubborn struggle is expected.
• Prediction: A draw.

Bournemouth (7) – Brighton (11)

• Brief analysis: Bournemouth are on an emotional high after the victory over Tottenham. Brighton, after the victory over City, showed that they are capable of surprises. The match can go according to any scenario.
• Prediction: Both will score – Yes.

Fulham (18) – Leeds (12)

• Brief analysis: Fulham cannot find their game yet and are in the relegation zone. Leeds look like a more balanced team. The guests have a good chance of taking away points from London.
• Prediction: Leeds will not lose (X2).

Everton (5) – Aston Villa (19)

• Brief analysis: Everton started the season well and are in the group of leaders. Aston Villa, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. At Goodison Park, the Toffees are clear favourites.
• Prediction: Everton win.

Brentford (15) – Chelsea (2)

• Summary: Chelsea are showing strong attacking football and are one of the main contenders for the title. Brentford are tough opponents, especially at home, but it will be very difficult for them to stop the Blues.
• Prediction: Chelsea win.

Burnley (14) – Liverpool (1)

• Brief analysis: Liverpool is the only team that goes without losses. Burnley at Turf Moor is always ready to give battle to any giant, but the class of Jurgen Klopp's team should take its toll.
• Prediction: Liverpool win and total under 3.5.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Outlook for the Future

The fourth round of the English Premier League promises to be one of the most exciting at the start of the season. The main conclusions are obvious: in the Manchester derby, City weakened by injuries risks suffering another failure, and United has every chance of at least not losing. In the London confrontation, Tottenham, which is on the move, looks like a clear favourite in the match against the crisis West Ham.

This round can bring the first serious clarity to the chaotic picture of the league. Will Manchester City's crisis deepen, effectively removing them from the title race back in September? Will Tottenham be able to prove their worth as a real contender for the top 4? Will Sunderland and Everton continue to surprise? The answers to these questions will determine the main storylines for the coming months. Ahead of us is a weekend filled with intrigue, drama and top-class football.

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