Predictions for the 11th round of the Premier League: "Survival Tour" - bets and odds on the matches Man City - Liverpool and Tottenham - Man Utd

Survival Tour – Who Will Take Advantage of the Chaos?

Matchday 11 of the 2025/26 Premier League is not just another round of matches; This is a breaking point. As Arsenal try to extend their lead at the top of the table, the real drama is behind them.

Three giants of the league – Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool – are in the grip of full-blown injury crises, losing key players at the worst possible time. Add to that the fact that the league's main underdog, Wolverhampton Wanderers, had just sacked their manager after a disastrous start.

This chaos creates incredible intrigue. Arsenal (25 points) created a small gap, but the real battle is for the Champions League zone. There are only two points between Manchester City, who are in second place (19 points) and Manchester United in eighth (17 points).

This tight group also includes Liverpool, sensational Sunderland, Tottenham and Chelsea.

Your complete guide to betting on the 11th round of the Premier League.

We will analyse which teams, such as Manchester United and Manchester City, are ready to make the most of other people's misfortunes.

We'll also break down which matches are bookmakers' "traps", where betting on big names rather than real lineups can lead to losses.

Current situation in the Premier League and meetings in the round: 

For the convenience of our US and Canadian audiences, all matches are listed in Eastern Time (ET) and odds are in American format (e.g. +140, -110).

Odds are provided by different bookmakers and are subject to change.

Analysis of key matches and predictions for the 11th round

This tour is defined not only by high-profile signs, but also by critical absences. Trauma analysis is more important than ever.

Match of the round: Manchester City vs Liverpool (Sunday, 11:30 AM ET)

This match is traditionally considered the "match of the year", but this season it is, first of all, a desperate battle for second place. City (19 points) and Liverpool (18 points) cannot afford to lose points and let Arsenal go even further.

Tactical analysis and team news

The key figure of this match is Erling Haaland. He is "close to unstoppable" this season, leading the scorers' race with 13 goals.

Liverpool's main problem is their defence. Under Arne Slot, they look "extremely vulnerable on the counter" and "far from impenetrable". The Reds kept a clean sheet in only one of the last six league matches.

Analysis of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) data reveals a shocking statistic: over the past six matches, no team in the Premier League has allowed more "clear scoring chances" (Big Chances) than Liverpool.

At the same time, Erling Haaland has an average of two "clear scoring chances" per game. The decisive factor is the news from the infirmaries. Manchester City are heading into the match in perfect condition, the only absentee is Mateo Kovacic (ankle). Liverpool, on the other hand, have a real disaster, especially defensively. Key players who are OUT of action:

• Alisson Becker (Starting Goalie) - groin/hamstring injury.
• Jeremy Frimpong (Defender) - muscle injury.
• Giovanni Leoni (Defender) - knee injury.

In addition, striker Alexander Isak (groin) is listed as "questionable".

Prediction and best bet

• Odds: Man City (-105) | Draw (+300) | Liverpool (+275).
  

• Analysis: The odds of -105 for City to win at home against a team with such a list of injuries in key positions are of great value. Liverpool will concede, and it is unlikely that they will be able to score more than City.
  

• Best bet: Manchester City (Moneyline) win (-105).
  

• Overall prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Liverpool.

Battle for the top 4: Tottenham vs. Manchester United (Saturday, 7:30 AM ET)

This is a direct battle for a place in the Champions League. Both teams have 17 points, sharing 6-8 places with Chelsea.

Tactical analysis and team news

The teams approach the match in radically different forms. Manchester United are on the rise: they are "unbeaten in the last four matches" and are one of the "hottest teams in the league".

More importantly, since October 1, Manchester United have been in first place in the league in terms of scoring in attack. Tottenham have an inexplicable dissonance. They are ranked 1st in the league in terms of away form, but at the same time... 17th (seventeenth!) place in home form.

They just can't win at home.

However, the main story of this match is injuries. Manchester United are in perfect condition, enjoying the "luxury of a fully healthy team".

Only Lisandro Martinez, who has returned to training, is under "a little doubt". Tottenham have a real epidemic. Sources confirm that Spurs have 9 (nine!) players out of the main squad. And these are not secondary players, these are the stars that determine the team's game:

• ELIMINATED: James Maddison (Creative Midfielder) - Knee Injury (ACL).
• OUT: Dejan Kulusevski (Forward/Creative) - Knee Injury (ACL).
• OUT: Dominic Solanke (Main Forward) - Ankle Injury.
• ELIMINATED: Yves Bissouma (defensive midfielder) - muscle injury.
• Ben Davis, Radu Dragusin, Archie Gray and others are also missing.

The market seems to be betting on Tottenham by inertia. But how can a team ranked 17th in home form and deprived of their entire creative group (Maddison, Kulusevski) and main striker (Solanke) be a favourite against the hottest attacking team in the league?

The odds of +140 for United against, in fact, the reserve squad of Spurs looks like the most obvious bet of the round.

Prediction and best bet

• Odds: Tottenham (+180) | Draw (+250) | Man United (+140).
  

• Analysis: Without Maddison, Kulusevski and Solanke, Tottenham are devoid of creativity and completion. Ruben Amorim's healthy and attacking Manchester United team should dominate.
  

• Best bet: Manchester United win (Moneyline) (+140).
  

• Score prediction: Tottenham 0-2 Manchester United.

Banking bet: Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET)

It's a classic David vs. Goliath match, with Chelsea (7th) battling for Europe and Wolverhampton (20th) going down.

Wolves are still without victories, have only 2 points and are 8 points away from the saving 17th line.

Tactical analysis and team news

It was a perfect storm for Wolverhampton. They are the 'whipping boys' in the league and have the worst defence in the Premier League, conceding 22 goals.

Last week, they were defeated by Fulham 0-3. This defeat was the "last straw" for the management, which fired manager Vitor Pereira.

Chelsea, on the other hand, are in 'free attacking form', having scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches.

Although the Blues have a notable loss in the person of Cole Palmer (groin), Enzo Fernandez has successfully taken over his attacking role. The team that occupies the last place, with the worst defence, without a single victory and lost a coach a week before the match, goes to visit one of the most productive attacks in the league.

This is a recipe for defeat. Bookmakers know this, so the odds for a clear victory for Chelsea (-250) are too small. The real value here is in the bet on the spread in the score. Chelsea are the favourites to score 2.5+ goals (44% probability).

Prediction and best bet

• Odds: Chelsea (-250) | Draw (+440) | Wolverhampton (+750).
  

• Analysis: Chelsea have already beaten Wolves 4-3 in the League Cup last week. Now that Wolves are in even more chaos, Chelsea must win confidently.
  

• Best bet: Chelsea -1.5 (Asian Handicap/Spread).
  

• Overall prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers.

The threat of sensationalism? Sunderland vs Arsenal (Saturday, 12:30 PM ET)

On paper, this is a match of 1st place (Arsenal, 25 points) against 4th (Sunderland, 18 points).

Arsenal are rightfully favourites, but Sunderland are not easy opponents, especially at home at the Stadium of Light, where they have already caused problems for Chelsea.

Tactical analysis and team news

The key factor here is injuries again. Sunderland have their losses, but Arsenal have a massive crisis in attack.

The posts paint a grim picture for Mikel Arteta:

• OUT: Gabriel Jesus (Forward) - Knee injury.
• OUT: Kai Havertz (Midfielder) - knee injury.
• ELIMINATED: Martin Odegaard (Captain/Creative) - knee injury.
• OUT: Gabriel Martinelli (winger) - contusion.
• OUT: Noni Madueke (Winger) - knee injury.
• DOUBTFUL: Victor Gyökeres (Main Forward) - hamstring. He missed the Champions League match and is "extremely unlikely" to play.

The odds for Arsenal -250 imply that they are clear favourites. But who will score? Six (!) of Arsenal's best attacking players are either out or are in question.

Arteta was forced to use midfielder Mikel Merino as a number nine in the Champions League. This is a classic "trap". People will bet on Arsenal because they are in 1st place, but the team that takes to the field will be deprived of attacking power. Sunderland will defend and it will be incredibly difficult for Arsenal to crack them.

Prediction and best bet

• Odds: Sunderland (+790) | Draw (+400) | Arsenal (-250).

• Analysis: A shutout bet on Arsenal looks too risky. The value here is on Sunderland or Total Under.
  

• Best bet: Sunderland +1.5 (Asian Handicap/Spread).
  

• Overall prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Arsenal.

Predictions for the rest of the matches of the 11th round (Short review)

• Everton vs Fulham (Saturday, 10:00 AM ET)
• Analysis: Everton are not winning 3 matches and Fulham have just won 3-0. However, Fulham are terrible away (4 defeats in a row). Key H2H trend: Everton have not been able to beat Fulham at home in their last 4 matches (1 draw, 3 losses).
• Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Everton.

• West Ham vs Burnley (Saturday, 10:00 AM ET)
• Analysis: Both teams are in bad shape (West Ham 1 win in 5, Burnley 2 in 5). West Ham are terrible at home (1 win out of 5). H2H: 3 of the last 4 matches are draws and West Ham are unbeaten by Burnley in the last 6 (3 wins, 3 draws).
• Prediction: West Ham 1-1 Burnley.

• Aston Villa vs Bournemouth (Sunday, 9:00 am ET)
• Analysis: Battle of 11th and 5th places. Bournemouth is one of the sensations of the season. Villa have serious injuries (Mings, Buendia) and a new loss (Tielemans). Bournemouth have practically no injuries. H2H is very equal (5 wins for Villa, 4 wins for Bournemouth). A healthy Bournemouth (5th place) should at least not lose.
• Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 AFC Bournemouth.

• Brentford vs Newcastle United (Sunday, 9:00 AM ET)
• Analysis: Newcastle have not been able to win away for 8 matches. Brentford are strong at home, and their striker Igor Thiago is in great shape. H2H (5 wins for Newcastle in 6 matches) in favor of the guests, but Newcastle's injuries (Wyssa, Livramento are OUT; Gordon is QUESTIONABLE) outweigh them.
• Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Newcastle United.

• Crystal Palace vs Brighton (Sunday, 9:00 AM ET)
• Analysis: Derby M23. Match of 9th and 10th places. This is one of the most equal confrontations in history (51 wins each, 41 draws). In the last 6 matches there is a perfect balance (2 wins, 2 draws). Both teams have significant losses (Doucoure, Nketiah for Palace; March, Mitoma for Brighton).
• Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC.

• Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United (Sunday, 9:00 am ET)
• Analysis: Battle for survival (19th to 16th). Forest have serious injury problems: Aina, Zinchenko, Douglas Luiz are OUT, Chris Wood is QUESTIONABLE. Leeds are much healthier (only Gnonto is in doubt). In the battle of outsiders, injuries are a decisive factor.
• Prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.

Best bets on the 11th round of the Premier League (Express prediction)

Having analysed all 10 matches, we can see that the market is underestimating the impact of the injury epidemic on Tottenham and Liverpool, as well as the chaos at Wolverhampton. This creates three obvious picks that stand out from the rest.

Table: Best Bets (Picks) of the 11th round of the Premier League

Weekly Express Forecast (The GW11 Parlay)

For those looking for a big win, combining these three most confident predictions into one parlay offers a great payout.

Rate:

1. Man United win (Moneyline) (+140)
2. Chelsea to win -1.5 (Spread) (+110)
3. Man City (Moneyline) win (-105)

Payout: A $ 10 bet on this three-event accumulator will yield $100.24.