Predictions for the 12th round of the Premier League, odds and bets: Expert analysis Arsenal – Tottenham, Newcastle – Man City and all 10 matches

The Premier League is back, with matchday 12 of the 2025/26 season kicking off after a chaotic international break.

This phase of the season is always fraught with surprises, with players returning from different continents, bringing with them flight fatigue and hidden injuries that disrupt the rhythm of the teams. For the league leaders, this is a critical moment.

At the top of the table, Arsenal (1st) are gearing up for the biggest match of the weekend, the North London derby against Tottenham (5th), in which more than just bragging rights are at stake. Meanwhile, Manchester City (2nd place) goes on a difficult trip to Newcastle (14th place), risking to fall behind the leader.

However, the main stories of the tour unfold not only at the top. Sensational Sunderland, in 4th place, meets Fulham (15th), where the manager is on the verge of dismissal. And at the bottom of the table, Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place), who have not won a single victory so far, are desperately looking for points in the match against Crystal Palace.

This report is a comprehensive analysis of all 10 matches of the 12th round, including predictions for the Premier League, analysis of team news and the best odds from bookmakers.

For the convenience of our US and Canadian audiences, all match times are listed in Eastern Time (ET) and odds are in American format (e.g. +110, -150).

Premier League Matchday 12 schedule and where to watch (USA/Canada)

To help you plan your weekend, here is the full schedule of matches of the 12th round of the Premier League.

All time information is listed in ET, as well as the main broadcast networks broadcasting matches in North America.

Table 1: Premier League matchday 12 schedule (ET time)

Analysis of key matches, predictions and best bets

This weekend offers three matches with huge consequences. Below is an in-depth analysis of narratives, team news, and bookmaker lines for each.

Match of the round: Arsenal vs Tottenham (North London derby prediction)

This is not just a derby, this is a clash of the 1st and 5th places in the table. Arsenal's leadership in the league is at stake.

• Paradox of Form: Force Majeure Against an Indestructible Object

The narrative of this match is defined by one striking statistic: Arsenal have the best home record in the league, averaging 2.60 points per game at the Emirates.

Tottenham, in turn, has the best away record in the league, also averaging 2.60 points per game on the road. Something has to break.

Historically, in the North London derby, the home advantage is huge, which is confirmed by H2H data, which shows that Arsenal regularly beat Spurs at home.

• Team News Analysis (Trauma Crisis)

However, historical data may not be important due to the biggest factor in this game: Arsenal's injury crisis.

The Gunners may be left without their entire creative core.

Arsenal: Captain and brain Martin Odegaard (knee) missed Norway games and his participation in the derby is a big question. He is joined by Kai Havertz (knee), Victor Gyökeres (muscle) and Gabriel Martinelli (bruise). All of them are "trying to be on time" for the match, but their availability is not guaranteed. Add to that the long-term absence of Gabriel Jesus (knee) and Arsenal's attack looks seriously weakened.

Tottenham: Spurs have their own big loss. Randal's key striker Kolo Muani is out due to a broken jaw sustained in the match against Manchester United. This almost certainly means that Richarlison will start. This changes Spurs' attack - it becomes less fluid, but more physical and aggressive.

• Odds and prediction

Moneyline: Arsenal (-270), Draw (+390), Tottenham (+750)

Over/Under 2.5: Over (-144), Under (+120)

Analysis: There is a huge discrepancy between the odds and reality. The market sees Arsenal (1st) at home against Tottenham (5th) and their dominance in H2H, and sets the price at -270.

However, this price does not seem to fully account for the combined effect of the possible absence of Odegaard, Havertz and Martinelli. It's not just the loss of one player; it is the collapse of Arteta's entire creation system.

The odds of -270 look like a "trap" based on reputation. The value here is not in Arsenal.

Although Spurs are underdogs, their perfect away form and Arsenal's injury problems make them dangerous.

• Overall prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur
• Rationale: Arsenal's injury crisis is too serious to ignore. Spurs, despite the absence of Kolo Muani, are perfectly organised away and will be happy to take away a draw with the Emirates. The 1-1 forecast looks the most realistic.
• Best bet: Draw (+390) or, for the more cautious, Both teams to score: Yes (+135).

Newcastle United – Manchester City (Prediction and odds)

Manchester City (2nd place) cannot afford to lose points in the pursuit of Arsenal. But Newcastle (14th) at St James' Park is not a cakewalk at all, especially when both teams are plagued by personnel problems.

• Team News Analysis (Equal Wounds)

Both teams approach the match with serious losses, which equalizes the chances.

Newcastle United: A huge loss is the suspension of first-choice defender Dan Byrne, who was sent off against Brentford and will miss this game. He is expected to be replaced by Lloyd Kelly. While the loss of Byrne is a blow to chemistry, replacing him with a faster and more mobile Kelly could prove to be a tactical advantage against explosive City wingers such as Jérémy Doku. Byrne's slowness could be an easy target.

At the same time, there is good news: Nick Pope (concussion) and Joelinton (bruise) are expected to be ready for the match, as their estimated return date is November 22.

Manchester City: City's problems are no less serious. Key playmaker Kevin De Bruyne (ankle) is in big question. He is joined by the main goalkeeper Ederson (foot/muscles), who was confirmed by Pep Guardiola as a "foot problem".

• Odds and prediction

Moneyline: Newcastle (+240), Draw (+260), Man City (+105)

Over/Under 2.5: Over (-150), Under (+118)

Comment: Unlike Arsenal's match, the market seems to have reacted appropriately to the news.

The odds of +105 for City against the 14th team are very generous, and it reflects the real problems.

The market understands that City without De Bruyne loses its main creative engine, and without Ederson - not only a goalkeeper, but also the first playmaker to start attacks. Add to that the hostile atmosphere of St James' Park, and City are vulnerable.

Although H2H is all for City, Newcastle's recent Carabao Cup win proves that they can win at home.

• Overall Prediction: Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City
• Rationale: Both teams are weakened. City will dominate possession, but without De Bruyne, they will lack sharpness. Newcastle at home, fuelled by the crowd and with a faster defender to contain Haaland and Doku, will be able to hold on to a draw.
• Best bet: Newcastle or Draw (Double Chance) (-145) or Newcastle +0.5 (Spread).

Silva's 'Day X': Fulham vs Sunderland (Match prediction)

This is the opposite match. Sunderland, in 4th place, is the main surprise of the season. Fulham, in 15th place, is in free fall.

• Narrative: Coach Crisis vs. Euphoria

Fulham: The club is weighing the future of manager Marco Silva. The team has lost 4 of the last 5 matches and is only one point away from the relegation zone. To make matters worse, Silva himself publicly criticised the team after the last defeat to Everton, saying: "We lost the game because of fitness, we couldn't cope with Everton's fitness at all." When a manager publicly accuses players of lacking "physics" (a euphemism for "trying"), it's a clear sign of a lost dressing room.

Add to that the "tensions" over his contract and we have a team in a state of total crisis.

Sunderland: As a team fresh up from the Championship, the Black Cats play without fear.

They are in 4th place and are in great form, having recently drawn 2-2 with Arsenal and beating Chelsea 2-1.

• Odds and prediction

Moneyline: Fulham (+105), Draw (+220), Sunderland (+270)

Over/Under 2.5: Over (+118), Under (-140)

Comment: This is the biggest divergence of the week. The team from 4th place (+270) is an underdog against the team from 15th (+105), which is in crisis.

Why? Bookmakers and computer models attach great importance to the home field and Fulham's "established" status in the Premier League. They consider Sunderland to be an upstart whose form is unsustainable. The model predicts a 1-0 victory for Fulham.

This is a mistake. Models cannot appreciate the "lost dressing room" or public criticism of Silva. Fulham's crisis is not just a bad form, it is a systemic collapse.

• Overall Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Sunderland
• Rationale: Sunderland are at the peak of their form and confidence. Fulham are broken and demoralized, and their manager is hanging by a thread. It's the perfect storm for an away win.
• Best bet: Sunderland Moneyline (+270). This is the best value bet of the entire 12th round.

Predictions and odds for the rest of the matches of the 12th round (Quick analysis)

Here is a brief analysis, odds and predictions for the remaining seven matches of the 12th round of the Premier League.

Burnley vs. Chelsea (Sat, 7:30 AM ET)

• Analysis: Chelsea (3rd) are in great shape and are fighting for the title. Burnley (17th) are fighting for survival. Despite an early trip to Turf Moor, which is never easy, Chelsea's class should take its toll.
• Odds: Burnley (+550), Draw (+333), Chelsea (-190)
• Score Prediction: Burnley 0-2 Chelsea

AFC Bournemouth vs. West Ham United (Sat, 10:00 AM ET)

• Analysis: Bournemouth (9th) have one of the best home records in the league. West Ham (18th) are in the relegation zone and are terrible on the road. The Cherries should confidently take three points.
• Odds: Bournemouth (-160), Draw (+310), West Ham (+480)
• Overall Prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 West Ham

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Brentford (Sat, 10:00 AM ET)

• Analysis: Mid-table battle between 11th and 12th place. Key factor: Brighton are unbeaten at home this season.
• Odds: Brighton (+100), Draw (+259), Brentford (+273)
• Score Prediction: Brighton 2-1 Brentford

Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest (Sat, 10:00 AM ET)

• Analysis: Liverpool (8th) have been disappointing their fans this season, but the home game against Nottingham Forest (19th) is a must-win. Forest are in the relegation zone and are unlikely to be able to oppose anything at Anfield.
• Odds: Liverpool (-240), draw (+370), Nott'm Forest (+480)
• Score Prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Nottingham Forest

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Crystal Palace (Sat, 10:00 AM ET)

• Analysis: Wolves (20th) are the worst team in the league, still without a single victory. Crystal Palace (10th place) is a strong middle peasant. This is a rare case when an away team is a clear favourite in a match against a non-top club.
• Odds: Wolves (+290), Draw (+275), Crystal Palace (-118)
• Score Prediction: Wolves 0-1 Crystal Palace

Leeds United vs. Aston Villa (Sun, 9:00 AM ET)

• Analysis: Aston Villa (6th) are one of the best teams in the league this season. Leeds (16th) are fighting at the bottom of the table. Although the odds are surprisingly close (probably due to Leeds' home factor), Villa's class should take over.
• Odds: Leeds (+260), Draw (+250), Aston Villa (+120)
• Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa

Manchester United vs. Everton (Mon, 3:00 PM ET)

• Analysis: The closing match of the round. Manchester United (7th) are unstable, but Everton (13th) are the perfect opponent for a home win. United should take three points at Old Trafford.
• Odds: Man Utd (-142), Draw (+285), Everton (+385)
• Score Prediction: Manchester United 1-0 Everton

Best Bets of the 12th Round: Express Prediction and Expert Selection

We have analysed all 10 games, here are our top picks for the 12th round of the Premier League, which are the most valuable.

Upset of the Week / Expert's Choice

• Bet: Sunderland Moneyline
• Odds: +270
• Rationale: As detailed above, this is the perfect storm. A 4th-placed team playing with incredible confidence is facing a 15th-placed team whose manager has lost his locker room and is on the verge of being fired.

Best Derby Bet

• Bet: Arsenal vs. Tottenham - Both Teams to Score: YES
• Odds: +135
• Justification: Arsenal always score at home. Tottenham always scores on the road. But Arsenal's injury crisis makes their defence vulnerable and their attack less able to "close" the game. It looks like a productive draw or a 2-1 victory for Arsenal. In any case, both teams will find their goals.

Iron Tour Bet (Banker Bet)

• Bet: Liverpool Moneyline (Liverpool to win)
• Odds: -240
• Rationale: No need to complicate things. Liverpool (8th) play at home at Anfield against Nottingham Forest (19th), who are in the relegation zone. This is the most reliable bet on the board, ideal for inclusion in the express.

Express prediction for the 12th round (Matchweek 12 Parlay of the Week)

We have combined three matches that we think have a high chance of winning into one parlay with attractive final odds.

Express prediction for the 12th round of the Premier League

Accumulator rationale: We combine three clear favourites in matches with clear underdogs. Liverpool and Bournemouth play at home against teams from the relegation zone, while Crystal Palace play against the worst team in the league, which has not won a single victory so far. This is a reliable accumulator with excellent final odds of +350.