Reboot for Gambling: How the Election Results in the Netherlands Can Change the "Destructive" Course of the Regulator

The unexpected results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands led to a change in the political balance. The D66 party, which received 26 seats, became one of the key forces in the process of forming the future coalition. For the gambling industry, this moment was a rare opportunity to try to correct the regulatory course, which over the past two years has become frankly destructive.

Recall that the current policy has led to severe consequences for the legal market:

• Radical tightening of advertising rules.
• Implementation of strict solvency checks (affordability checks).
• A significant increase in the fiscal burden (the GGR tax is expected to reach 37.8% from 2026).

The result of these measures was an unprecedented drop in the channelization rate (the level of involvement of players in the legal market). For the first time, it fell below 50%, which means that more than half of all players in the country preferred to go into the unlicensed "gray" segment.

Even the local regulator KSA was forced to admit that overly strict restrictions, instead of protecting the audience, actually forced it to look for alternatives from illegal operators.

Against the backdrop of this political turbulence, experts note that while difficult and probably protracted coalition negotiations are underway in the country (which may last until the summer), the industry has a unique "window of opportunity" to establish a dialogue with the future government.

An important step towards this was the merger of two key industry associations this year, which allowed the market to act as a "single voice". Now the main task is to prove that the legal sector is able to ensure the safety of players more effectively than illegal structures.

The threat of new restrictions, such as the introduction of uniform deposit limits and raising the age limit to 21 years, is still relevant. However, for the first time in a long time, there is a real chance to soften this course, while the new political structure in the country has not yet been finally formed.