Trump Backs Prediction Markets and Calls Them a Financial Market

Donald Trump has sharply changed his tone on prediction markets. In a post on Truth Social, he argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should retain exclusive oversight of the sector and that prediction markets should “thrive.” In effect, Trump backed the position of Kalshi, Polymarket, and other players who insist that their products are closer to derivatives and financial contracts than to traditional gambling.

The president also praised CFTC Chair Michael Selig, saying he is doing a good job. According to Trump, the United States should set a “gold standard” of rules for the states rather than allowing local authorities to decide on their own whether to treat prediction markets as betting, gambling, or a financial instrument.

The loudest part of the statement was his attack on the sector’s critics. Trump singled out Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and J.B. Pritzker by name, accusing them of trying to impose their own rules on the market. The tone was as harsh as possible: he called those politicians “scum” and linked their actions to a threat to a new industry that, according to him, other countries are already trying to outpace.

The reasons behind the conflict are clear. New York Attorney General Letitia James previously filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini, arguing that their prediction market products are effectively illegal gambling operations without a state licence. Minnesota under Tim Walz became the first state to adopt a direct ban on such platforms. In Illinois under J.B. Pritzker, authorities also moved toward restrictions, including measures targeting the use of insider information by officials.

Against that backdrop, Trump’s position looks not merely regulatory, but political. He has effectively sided with the federal model: the CFTC is responsible for the market, states do not interfere, and prediction markets get room to grow. For the industry, this is an important signal because the main dispute in the U.S. now revolves around one question: are these financial contracts, or bets by another name?

There is also an uncomfortable context. In April, Trump spoke about prediction markets very differently: when answering a question about insider trading on such platforms, he said that “the whole world has become something like a casino” and that, conceptually, he did not like it. The new post looks almost like a 180-degree turn.

The Trump family’s ties to the sector make the topic even more sensitive. Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic adviser to Kalshi and has invested in Polymarket through his venture firm. Trump Media also announced plans to develop Truth Predict with Crypto.com, although according to Wired, the project was later scaled back to a more limited partnership.

That is why the dispute over prediction markets has quickly moved beyond a dry legal debate. For platforms, it is a chance to establish themselves as part of the financial infrastructure. For states, it is a question of control over gambling and consumer protection. For Trump, it is also an opportunity to present prediction markets as a new American industry that must not be strangled by local bans.