Insider or luck? US Democrats initiated a ban on "bloody" bets in forecast markets
A serious confrontation with forecast markets is brewing in the American political establishment. Senator Chris Murphy and Congressman Greg Kasar have come up with a legislative initiative aimed at completely banning platforms that allow betting on the outcome of military conflicts, terrorist attacks, contract killings, and other events that depend on the will of specific individuals.
The reason for such radical measures was the suspicious accuracy of forecasts on the Polymarket platform. On the eve of the joint operation of the United States and Israel against Iran, abnormal activity was recorded on the site: 150 accounts were "charged" at the beginning of the strikes literally 24 hours before their actual start dollars.
Ethical dilemma and conflict of interest
The authors of the bill are sure that the existence of such markets creates dangerous precedents. The main concern is that senior advisers or officials may make recommendations on national security issues based on personal financial gain at stakes rather than the interests of the state. In fact, war is turning into a tool for personal enrichment for those who have access to classified information.
The situation is also complicated by political overtones. The document separately emphasises the role of Donald Trump Jr. The son of the former president is not only an investor in Polymarket, but also receives royalties as an adviser to the rival platform Kalshi. Moreover, he is working on creating his own project called Truth Predict. Democrats see this as an attempt to turn government decisions into a controlled casino, where the one closest to the "body" wins.
Olivia Grant is an iGaming news reporter at CasinosInCanada who covers casino industry updates, regulations, and market developments.
Prediction markets are the most accurate source of information. If people put money, it means they know something. This is more effective than any opinion polls and analysts from TV. And the fact that someone earned half a million - well, great.
Fuck, of course. Betting on how many people will be unwound by rockets today is already some kind of "Running Man" in reality. Democrats, of course, are still hypocrites, but here I agree: it's time to close the shop, otherwise politicians will start unleashing wars purely for the sake of cash in the polymarket.