Prediction Markets Have Overtaken Crypto Casinos in On-Chain Entertainment
TRM Labs analysts estimated crypto casino turnover for 2025 at $51 billion. Until the start of 2026, this segment remained the leading area of on-chain entertainment: crypto casinos and betting were well ahead of prediction markets by transaction volume.
But in Q1 2026, the balance shifted. Prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi moved ahead for the first time, generating $36.6 billion in on-chain volume. By comparison, crypto casinos and betting have posted $14 billion since the start of the year. The gap is already too large to chalk up solely to a short-term surge of interest.
USDT and TRON Remain the Market's Key Pairing
The main settlement currency in on-chain entertainment remains USDT. Analysts name TRON as the leading network: 38% of the market runs through it, while USDT's share within that ecosystem reaches 94%.
Bitcoin, by contrast, has sharply lost ground. Its share fell from 36% to 2%, and the main reason is fairly obvious here: high fees. For a segment where users often move money between platforms, transaction speed and cost matter more than the status of the original cryptocurrency.
Growth Is Being Driven by Returning Players, Not a Mass Influx of Newcomers
TRM Labs separately emphasizes that the market is growing less because of new users and more because of those who have already been inside the ecosystem for a long time. In recent years, the number of returning customers has grown almost fourfold, while the average betting volume per player continues to rise.
The heaviest portion of turnover is concentrated among high rollers. They make up just 6% of the audience but account for nearly 92% of the monetary volume. That clearly shows how dependent the market is on a small group of large players rather than a broad mass base.
Criminal Risks Have Not Gone Away
Against the backdrop of this growth, analysts also point to the sector's weak spots. Prediction markets still face the problem of insider trading: access to non-public information can directly affect trades and outcomes for other participants.
Crypto casinos, in turn, continue to appear in money laundering cases and remain an attractive target for hackers. Among the major incidents, TRM Labs mentions the $41 million Stake hack and the fraudulent ZKasino project, which caused users to lose around $33 million.
The picture is odd, but logical. Crypto casinos are still moving huge amounts of money, but in 2026, the centre of attention in on-chain entertainment has clearly shifted to prediction markets. They have stronger momentum, more fresh interest and, judging by volumes, an entirely different scale now.
Olivia Grant is an iGaming news reporter at CasinosInCanada who covers casino industry updates, regulations, and market developments.
