Arsenal vs PSG: Champions League Semi-Final Analysis and Prediction

London froze in anticipation! On 30 April 2025, the Emirates Stadium will be the stage for the first act of the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League semi-final grand tie. Arsenal will face off against Arsenal FC and Saint-Germain FC in Paris, two ambitious teams eager to lift Europe's most coveted club trophy over their heads.

Adding to the intrigue is the fact that the paths of these giants have already crossed this season. At the group stage (or rather, in the new league format), the Gunners confidently beat the Parisians on their own field with a score of 2:0. Will this victory give a psychological advantage to Mikel Arteta's team? Or has Luis Enrique's PSG learned its lessons and is hungry for revenge? One thing is for sure: an incredible sight awaits us! Let's break down the teams and try to look into the future.

Arsenal's journey: A Hurricane March to the Semi-Finals

The Londoners have an outstanding campaign in the Champions League, demonstrating power and stability.

• Champions League (new format) – Main stage: The Gunners passed the main stage of the tournament brilliantly, finishing in a high 3rd place with 19 points after 8 games. The statistics are impressive: 6 wins, 1 draw and only 1 defeat, with a goal difference of 16-3.
• Highlights include a goalless draw with Atalanta away, a 2-0 home win over Paris Saint-Germain, a narrow 0-1 defeat to Inter Milan, a 5-1 thrashing of Sporting in Lisbon and comfortable home wins over AS Monaco (3-0) and Dinamo Zagreb (3-0). A 2-1 away victory over Girona cemented the success. This stage has shown that Arsenal are dangerous both at home and away.
• Playoffs: Ruthless Gunners In the knockout matches, Arsenal only improved:
• 1/8 finals: PSV Eindhoven were literally swept out of the way. A 7-1 away defeat (!), followed by a 2-2 home draw, left the Dutch with no chance (9-3 on aggregate).
• 1/4 final: A real sensation! Arsenal not only passed, but declassed the current owner of the trophy - Real Madrid. A comfortable 3-0 home win and a 2-1 away triumph at the Santiago Bernabeu (5-1 on aggregate) made the whole of Europe talk about the strength of Arteta's team.

Arsenal's current form: alarm bells before the semi-finals?

Despite the success in the Champions League, the latest results in the Premier League raise questions.

• English Premier League: In the last five Premier League matches, Arsenal have won twice (Ipswich 4-0, Fulham 2-1) and drawn three times (Crystal Palace 2-2, Brentford 1-1, Everton 1-1). Losing points, especially at home to Palace and Brentford, can indicate some fatigue or instability on the eve of the most important European competition.
• Cup tournaments: In the FA Cup, the team was eliminated early, losing on penalties to Manchester United. In the League Cup, they reached the semi-finals, where they also lost to Newcastle in a penalty shootout.

Arsenal leaders: Who will lead the Gunners into battle?

Mikel Arteta has a great gang, where everyone knows their role.

• Key Figures:
• Goalkeeper: David Raya is a reliable last frontier.
• Defence: Solid center William Saliba - Gabriel Magalhães (but he is injured!), tireless flanks Ben White (questionable) and Jurrien Timber.
• Midfield: The engine of the team is Declan Rice, the brain of the attacks is captain Martin Odegaard. Mikel Merino (also questionable) is capable of playing higher.
• Attack: Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are reactive and goalscoring. Leandro Trossard has regained his form and can come out on the edge.
• Statistics of the 2024/25 season (Premier League): Kai Havertz (injured!) is the top scorer (9 goals), Bukayo Saka is the best assister (10 assists).
• Personnel situation: Arteta's serious headache! And here Arsenal have a real problem. Thomas Partey will miss the match due to suspension. The participation of Mikel Merino and Ben White is a big question. And Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhães, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kai Havertz and Jorginho are definitely out of the game due to injuries! The loss of key defensive, midfield and attacking players is a huge blow to the ambitions of the Gunners before such a match. Arteta will have to seriously rack his brains over the starting lineup.

PSG's path: Through Thorns to the Semi-finals

The Parisians also reached this stage, not without adventure.

• Champions League (new format) – Main stage: PSG finished only in 15th place with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, goal difference 14-9). This meant playing an additional round of the playoffs. The instability was obvious: defeats to Arsenal (0-2), Atlético Madrid (1-2 home!) and Bayern Munich (0-1), but at the same time bright victories over Manchester City (4-2 home!), Salzburg (3-0) and Stuttgart (4-1).
• Playoffs: Character and Stars Decide In the knockout matches, PSG transformed:
• Play-off round: French Brest was destroyed without a chance – 3:0 away and 7:0 at home (total score 10:0).
• 1/8 finals: A real thriller against Liverpool! After a 0-1 home defeat, the Parisians managed to take revenge 1-0 at Anfield and snatched victory in a penalty shootout (4-1).
• 1/4 final: Another battle with the English club - Aston Villa. A 3-1 home victory, and then a nervous 2-3 away defeat, which, however, was enough for the final success (5:4).

PSG's current form: an unexpected misfire before London

The Parisians won the championship in France ahead of schedule, but the end of the season is blurred.

• Ligue 1: In the last four matches, there are two wins (Le Havre 2-1, Angers 1-0), a 1-1 draw with Nantes, breaking a record unbeaten run away and – a sensation! – a 1-3 home defeat to Nice.
• Coupe de France: Everything is going according to plan here. PSG reached the final (defeating Dunkirk 4-2), where they will play against Reims on May 24. The opportunity to make a "golden double" is a good incentive.

PSG stars: Galacticos ready to take on the Emirates?

Luis Enrique's squad is a scattering of world-class talents.

• Key Figures:
• Goalkeeper: Impenetrable Gianluigi Donnarumma.
• Defence: Jet edges Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes, experienced captain Marquinhos and reliable Willian Pacho in the centre.
• Midfield: Dynamic Vitinha, intelligent Fabian Ruiz and young talent João Neves cement the midfield.
• Attack: Ousmane Dembele is the main striking force this season (32 goals everywhere!). He is assisted by the fast Bradley Barcola and the technical Désiré Douhet. And let's not forget about Goncalo Ramos.
• Statistics of the 2024/25 season: Dembele is the main scorer (21 goals in Ligue 1). Barkola and Neves are among the leaders in assists. (WhoScored ratings and minute distribution may vary slightly from source to source.)
• Personnel situation: full ammunition! Unlike Arsenal, PSG have almost no losses. Willian Pacho is a little sick, but he is ready to play. Luis Enrique can field his strongest squad - a significant trump card before leaving for London.

Tentative line-ups: Who will we see on the pitch?

Given the injuries of Arsenal and the power of PSG, let's assume the following starting eleven:

• Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya – Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly – Rice, Odegaard, Merino (?) – Saka, Trossard, Martinelli. (The composition is highly dependent on Merino's condition; other options are possible in the centre of defence and midfield)
• PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma – Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes – Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves – Barkola, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia (or Douhet).

Prediction and Betting: What to Expect from Act I?

Bookmakers see the home team as small favourites:

The Emirates factor and winning the group give Arsenal an advantage in the eyes of analysts. However, high odds for all outcomes indicate the unpredictability of the match.

Expert opinions were divided:

• Someone believes in Arsenal, remembering the victory over Real Madrid and the problems of PSG in the last match of Ligue 1 (for example, Sports Mole bets on 2:1).
• Others believe that the experience and class of PSG players will take their toll, and they will at least not lose, or even take away the victory.
• Paul Merson, the legend of Arsenal, naturally bets on the passage of his former team on aggregate.
• Important fact: the statistics of head-to-head matches are completely for Arsenal! In 5 European Cup matches, the Londoners have never lost to PSG (2 wins, 3 draws). The Parisians have never beaten the Gunners in official games.

Conclusion: The intrigue is off the charts!

The first match at the Emirates promises to be fiery! Arsenal approach him with incredible motivation after the victory over Real Madrid, the support of their home stands and a psychological advantage after the autumn victory over the Parisians. But personnel losses are a huge problem that can negate all the advantages. Will Arteta be able to find a way out?

PSG, despite the recent misfire with Nice, has a squad capable of deciding the outcome of the match at any time. The absence of injuries among the leaders and the experience of big games are their main trump cards. Will they finally be able to break the unsuccessful streak against Arsenal and create a reserve for the second leg in Paris?

Taking into account all the pros and cons, we can expect a tense struggle. Arsenal, even weakened, will fight for victory at home. PSG, on the other hand, will probably try to score an important away goal. We dare to assume that the hosts will be able to snatch a minimal victory, but the intrigue before the second leg will remain maximum.

Our prediction for the first leg: Arsenal 2 vs 1 PSG.